Bitcoin dropped to its lowest levels in recent months — market wrap

Bitcoin is going through one of its most difficult periods in recent months. After an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above $80,000, the main cryptocurrency turned lower again and fell to around $73,500–74,000 in November. These are the lowest levels in about three months.

The decline in BTC cannot be explained by a single reason. The crypto market is being simultaneously affected by political uncertainty in the US after the midterm elections, tightening expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy, problems in the stock market, capital outflows from exchange-traded funds, and the aftermath of a major Binance hack.

As a result, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a risky investment asset: when investors fear a deterioration in the global economic situation, they reduce investments not only in technology stocks but also in cryptocurrencies.

Why Bitcoin is getting cheaper: five main factors

1. US midterm elections and political uncertainty

One of the important events in November was the US Congressional elections on November 3. The victory of the Democrats and their gaining control of both chambers caused a mixed reaction in financial markets.

On the one hand, initially investors perceived the election results positively: there was hope for a reduction in geopolitical tensions and a more predictable economic policy.

On the other hand, the cryptocurrency sector fears that the new composition of Congress may slow down the adoption of legislation regulating digital assets. In particular, additional doubts arose regarding the prospects for advancing the CLARITY Act, which should define the rules for regulating the American crypto market.

As a result, initial optimism quickly gave way to caution. On November 8, bitcoin fell to $73,708.

2. Tightening expectations regarding Fed policy

Another serious negative factor was US macroeconomic statistics.

The published labor market data showed the creation of 165 thousand jobs in October. This turned out to be a strong enough result to reduce fears about a slowdown in the American economy.

At the same time, inflationary pressure remains high. As a result, market participants have become more actively discussing the possibility of raising the Fed's interest rate as early as December.

For bitcoin, this is bad news: high interest rates make traditional financial instruments more attractive, reduce investors' willingness to take risks, and limit the inflow of capital into cryptocurrencies.

3. The collapse of tech stocks dragged down cryptocurrencies

In early November, serious problems arose in the American stock market. Technology companies and semiconductor manufacturers were especially hard hit amid a reassessment of the prospects for investments in artificial intelligence.

On November 5, the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4%. Bitcoin also sharply dropped in price.

Over the course of a day, traders' positions worth more than $1 billion were forcibly liquidated in the cryptocurrency market. The main blow fell on investors who used borrowed funds and were counting on further growth of BTC and other digital assets.

4. Outflow of money from bitcoin ETFs

Another alarming signal is the behavior of institutional investors.

In the first week of November, US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of approximately $1.28 billion. This is one of the worst weekly results since the end of June.

According to analysts, in the first ten days of November, the total outflow from such funds reached approximately $1.57 billion.

This is important because ETFs during 2026 were one of the main sources of institutional demand for bitcoin. When investors withdraw money from the funds, pressure on the market increases.

5. The aftermath of the Binance hack

The story of a large-scale theft of funds in the Binance ecosystem also had a negative effect on investor sentiment. This concerns a hack, the damage from which is estimated at approximately $6.3 billion.

This event once again reminded market participants of the risks of storing cryptocurrencies on centralized platforms, cybersecurity problems, and insufficient protection of individual infrastructure elements of the crypto industry.

Amid falling quotes and mass closure of margin positions, such news further increases investors' desire to reduce risks.

Technical picture: where the nearest support and resistance levels are

From a technical point of view, the situation remains predominantly bearish. Bitcoin dropped below $75,000, which previously acted as an important support zone.

Now market participants are watching several levels.

Key BTC/USD levels

Resistance 3 $81,300 - 30-day moving average. Breaking it will improve the technical picture.

Resistance 2 $80,000 - An important psychological mark.

Resistance 1 $75,000–76,000 The nearest zone that needs to be returned to buyers.

Immediate support $73,000–73,200 Area of the 200-day moving average.

Next support $70,000 Strong psychological level.

Deep support $65,000–67,000 Zone of the previous summer price breakout.

Benchmarks for technical analysis on November 9–11, 2026.

Especially important is bitcoin's behavior near $73,000–73,200. If buyers manage to hold this area, an attempt to recover is possible with a return to $75,000–76,000.

However, a confident drop below $73,000 will increase the probability of a move to $70,000. If this level does not hold either, the next target for sellers could be the range of $65,000–67,000.

What to expect from bitcoin in the next month

Over the horizon of the next four weeks, three main scenarios can be identified.

Optimistic scenario. If US inflation begins to slow down, expectations of a Fed rate hike will weaken, and investors again start investing in spot bitcoin ETFs, BTC will be able to recover. The first target will be a return above $80,000, the next — $84,000–85,000.

Base scenario. Currently, the most likely is a continuation of unstable trading in a wide range. Investors will react to American statistics, Fed statements, movements of technology stocks, and changes in institutional flows. In such conditions, even relatively small news can cause sharp fluctuations in quotes.

Negative scenario. If sellers' pressure persists, bitcoin may test $70,000. An additional risk will be a deterioration in the geopolitical situation and a new round of investors' flight from risky assets.

Summary: Bitcoin is not yet ready for a sustainable recovery

The current decline in bitcoin is due to a combination of several factors: uncertainty after the US elections, expectations of a tougher Fed policy, problems in the American technology sector, outflow of funds from ETFs, and the consequences of major incidents with the security of cryptocurrency infrastructure.

It is important to understand that this is not only about the problems of bitcoin itself. The cryptocurrency has become part of a global sell-off of risky assets, so its further dynamics will largely depend on the situation in traditional financial markets.

For the next month, my forecast remains cautious: the risk of further decline is still higher than the probability of a quick return to sustainable growth. The key mark is $73,000. Its loss could accelerate the movement to $70,000 and below.

At the same time, a strong rebound is quite possible, especially if the Fed softens its rhetoric and institutional investors return to buying. Therefore, it is premature to talk about the start of a long-term bear market, but there are also insufficient grounds to count on a rapid update of historical highs.