Precious metals continue to lose value: market review

The global precious metals market is undergoing a correction: gold, silver, platinum and palladium are under pressure from high interest rates, inflation risks and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's next steps. However, long-term support factors remain — from central bank demand for gold to limited supply of silver and platinum group metals.

As of the morning of October 21, 2026, it is especially important to monitor oil prices, U.S. bond yields and Fed rate expectations. These factors may determine the direction of the market in the coming weeks.

Gold: inflation risks hamper recovery

Gold remains the main safe-haven asset for investors, but in October its quotes are under noticeable pressure. On the morning of October 21, spot prices fell to around $4,118 per troy ounce, extending losses for the fourth consecutive session. U.S. gold futures also declined.

The main reason for the weakness is concerns about inflation. Rising oil prices due to risks of energy supply disruptions increase the likelihood that the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy for longer. High interest rates and bond yields reduce the appeal of gold, which does not yield interest.

Additional pressure comes from a correction after strong gains in previous periods. According to the World Gold Council, in September the metal fell by 8.5% to $4,176 an ounce. At the same time, gold exchange-traded funds continued to attract funds, with net inflows of about $10 billion, or 67 tons, in September. This suggests that some investors still view gold as a long-term capital preservation tool.

Forecast: in the coming weeks, gold may remain volatile, and if bond yields stay high, further declines are possible. At the same time, central bank demand, concerns about government debts and geopolitical risks may limit the depth of the correction.

In the longer term, the outlook appears better. According to a survey of participants at the London Bullion Market Association conference published on October 6, the average gold price forecast for the next 12 months was about $5,013 per ounce. This is an expert estimate, not a guaranteed target.

Silver: industrial demand supports prices, but volatility remains high

Silver combines the properties of a precious metal and an industrial raw material. It is in demand in solar energy, electronics, electrical engineering and equipment manufacturing. Therefore, its price depends not only on the dollar exchange rate and Fed policy, but also on the state of global industry.

On the morning of October 21, silver spot price fell by about 0.9% to $57.44 per troy ounce. Like gold, silver is under pressure due to concerns that inflation will force the U.S. central bank to keep interest rates high for a longer period.

However, silver has its own supportive factors. Limited supply and industrial consumption may contribute to a recovery in prices if the global economy remains resilient. However, if production slows, demand for the metal could weaken.

An additional risk is the high volatility: silver usually reacts more strongly to changes in investment sentiment than gold. After sharp rises, it can lose value just as quickly.

Forecast: significant fluctuations are likely in the coming weeks. A weaker dollar and falling U.S. bond yields could bring buyers back. Conversely, new inflation fears and worsening industrial conditions could trigger additional selling.

Over a one-year horizon, silver's prospects may improve thanks to industrial demand and limited supply. LBMA conference participants in October forecast a price around $97 per ounce in 12 months, but such a substantial increase is not a base-case guaranteed scenario.

Platinum: limited supply may be an advantage

Platinum is used in automotive catalytic converters, the chemical industry, oil refining, jewelry production and some hydrogen technologies. Its market is smaller than gold's, so changes in the supply-demand balance can significantly affect prices.

On the morning of October 21, platinum fell by about 0.6% to $1,638.61 per troy ounce. The decline comes amid overall weakness in the precious metals market and concerns about the Fed's future policy.

However, platinum's fundamental situation differs from that of gold. An important factor remains constrained mining, particularly in South Africa, one of the key global producers of platinum group metals.

Additional support may come from the substitution of platinum for palladium in automotive catalysts. This substitution became especially relevant after the previous sharp rise in palladium prices. However, demand from the automotive industry depends on output of internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids.

Forecast: platinum looks like a potential candidate for recovery if the market gets confirmation of a supply deficit and industrial demand remains stable. But in the coming weeks, quotes will also depend on the dollar, bond yields and overall investor risk sentiment.

According to the October LBMA survey, the average market participant forecast for the next 12 months was about $1,914 per ounce. Realization of this scenario will depend on metal supply and recovery in demand.

Palladium: prospects depend on the automotive industry

Palladium depends heavily on the automotive sector: a major portion of its industrial consumption is related to catalytic converters in gasoline engines. Therefore, its outlook is determined not only by investment demand by also by structural changes in the automotive industry.

On the morning of October 21, palladium lost about 1.1%, falling to $1,090.84 per troy ounce. Among the four metals considered, it showed the biggest decline in this session.

The main long-term problem for palladium is the gradual substitution by platinum in automotive catalysts and the growing share of electric vehicles, which do not require traditional catalytic converters. This limits potential demand growth.

However, palladium supply remains sensitive to conditions in producing countries and mining disruptions. Therefore, unexpected supply constraints can cause a sharp price spike even with not-so-favorable demand prospects.

Forecast: in the short term, downside risks remain. Sustainable recovery will require improved automotive demand, supply constraints or a noticeable improvement in overall market sentiment for metals.

In the longer term, palladium is less clear-cut than gold and platinum: possible supply disruptions support prices, but structural decline in metal use creates counterpressure. LBMA conference participants in October forecast palladium at around $1,415 per ounce in 12 months.

Indicative spot quotes on the morning of October 21, 2026.

What will influence the market in the coming weeks

In the near term, four factors will be key.

1. Fed decision and interest rate expectations. The next meeting of the American central bank is scheduled for October 27–28. The market will assess signals regarding inflation and further monetary policy. High rates are usually unfavorable for metals that do not yield interest.

2. Oil and inflation. If energy prices continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, the likelihood of maintaining the Fed's tight policy may increase. That could put additional pressure on precious metals quotes.

3. Dollar dynamics. A weaker U.S. currency usually makes gold and other metals cheaper for buyers using other currencies, potentially supporting demand. A stronger dollar, on the contrary, often becomes a negative factor. In times of severe instability, gold may receive additional support as a safe-haven asset.

4. Industrial demand and supply. For silver, platinum and palladium, the state of global industry, automotive production, energy and raw material availability are important. Unlike gold, these metals depend far more on the industrial cycle.

Final forecast

For the coming weeks, the base case scenario for precious metals is heightened volatility with risk of further correction if inflation fears intensify and U.S. bond yields remain high.

• Gold remains the most pronounced safe-haven asset, but may face pressure from rates and bond yields.
• Silver has recovery potential if investment sentiment improves and industrial demand holds, but remains volatile.
• Platinum may receive support from limited supply and use in automotive catalysts.
• Palladium remains the most dependent on the automotive industry and structural changes in demand.

Thus, in the short term, much will depend on Fed signals and oil price movements. Over a longer horizon, gold may benefit from demand for safe havens, while silver and platinum may benefit from industrial consumption and limited supply. However, analysts' forecasts should be taken as scenarios, not promises of growth: after strong moves, prices may continue to decline before sustainable recovery signs appear.