Euro rate on verge of new fluctuations: market watches US

On the FOREX currency market on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, investors' attention is focused on US macroeconomic statistics and expectations regarding the further policy of the US Federal Reserve. The release of new data may increase fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair and affect the short-term direction of the euro.

An additional factor for the European currency remains expectations from the meetings of the Fed and the European Central Bank, which will take place this week. Investors are assessing how much the approaches of the American and European regulators to interest rates will differ.

Which US data will be released on October 27

According to the economic calendar, on Tuesday investors will monitor several important indicators of the US economy:

• Durable goods orders for September. Growth in orders above forecasts will indicate the resilience of industry and investment demand, which could support the dollar. Weak data, on the contrary, may play in favor of the euro.
• Consumer confidence index for October. This indicator reflects the mood of American consumers. Confidence in the economy may strengthen the dollar, while worsening sentiment will heighten concerns about a slowdown in economic growth.
• New home sales for September. Resilience of the real estate market will be an additional argument in favor of the strength of the American economy.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October. An improvement in the indicator may support the American currency, while a deterioration may put pressure on it.
• S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August. The dynamics of real estate prices will help assess the situation in the American housing market and inflation trends.

Of particular importance for the currency market will be data on durable goods orders and consumer confidence. It is the deviation of the published figures from analysts' expectations that can provoke the most noticeable response in the EUR/USD rate.

How will the statistics affect the euro rate? Two main scenarios are possible. First scenario – dollar strengthening. If US statistics turn out stronger than forecasts, investors may revise expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts. In this case, the EUR/USD pair will be under pressure, and the euro risks becoming cheaper against the dollar.

Second scenario – euro growth. If US data disappoint the markets, market participants may strengthen expectations of a more dovish Fed policy. This will create prerequisites for a weaker dollar and recovery of the European currency.

At the same time, the market reaction will not necessarily be unambiguous: investors will take into account not only individual statistical indicators, but also the interest rate prospects of both central banks.

What to expect from the euro in the coming days

In addition to statistics, the key event of the week will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Markets will assess the decision of the American regulator and its signals regarding further monetary policy. Also in focus will be the meeting of the European Central Bank.

Conclusion: On October 27, the direction of the euro on FOREX will largely depend on US statistics. Strong data can support the dollar and limit the growth of EUR/USD, while weak indicators can strengthen the position of the European currency. However, the decisive factor for the further dynamics of the pair will be expectations regarding the interest rates of the Fed and the ECB.